Should you buy BTC now? The quick answer is ‘probably not’. Considering the ongoing inflation and growth dynamics, it is probable that a 25 basis point increase will occur in June (unless a debt ceiling crisis arises), which would have a bearish effect on bitcoin. From our perspective, the markets are underpricing the likelihood of such a hike. And Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently said ‘‘the process of getting inflation back down to 2 percent has a long way to go.’Ĭurrently, the markets are assigning merely a 5% chance of a 25 basis point increase by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in June. Inflation remains way above target (April CPI showed little progress on disinflation, with core goods rising 0.6% due to a 4.4% increase in used care prices). We think the main reason for this is a deteriorating macro backdrop. However, recent weeks have seen bitcoin retrace its steps. Last month, the BTC price even exceeded $30,000 on hopes that the Fed’s hiking cycle was nearing completion and that inflation was calming down. From $16,000 on 1 January, it has risen 63% to $27,152 so far this year.

That means we expect the bitcoin price to rise in the long term.īitcoin had a great start to 2023, reversing the downward trend seen throughout the end of 2022. However, we also think bitcoin is a good long-term investment for the next one to three years and are bullish overall.That means we expect stable to falling prices.

For trading bitcoin over the next two to four weeks, we are slightly bearish.We look at the latest bitcoin trends, including macro risks and on-chain/flow metrics, to reveal the best time to buy bitcoin and the risks of buying BTC.

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